Jan 24, 2012
Bottom-Line: Six Assertions:
(1) Afghanistan is in misery. 68% of the population has never known peace. Life expectancy is 44 years. It has the second highest maternal mortality rate in the world: One of six pregnant Afghan women dies for each live birth. Terrorist incidents and main force insurgent violence is rising (34% increase this year in kinetic events.) Battle action and casualties are now much higher in Afghanistan for US forces than they are in Iraq.
Without NATO we are lost in Afghanistan. The next Administration must have a major diplomatic commitment to strengthen the capabilities and commitment of our 26 NATO allies.
Pakistan is a state of four separate nations under a weak federal government. The Pakistani military is the central load-bearing institution of the state.
Afghanistan: A Narco-State
The Taliban, Al Qaeda, war lords, and Afghan criminal enterprises are principally funded by what some estimate as $800 million dollars a year derived from the huge $4 billion annual illegal production and export of opium/heroin and cannabis.
Building the Afghan Security Forces
… We desperately need an additional 2300 police trainers. This is the central effort to win the war in Afghanistan.
The US Armed Forces:
The combat effectiveness, courage, and leadership of our deployed joint military forces are simply inspirational. The leaders are battle-hardened, show enormous initiative, and can organize anything.
We cannot allow ourselves to fail in Afghanistan.
NATO is central to achieving our purpose.
This is a generational war to build an Afghan state and prevent the creation of a lawless, extremist region which will host and sustain enduring threats to the vital national security interests of the United States and our key allies.
Afghanistan is a region that has resisted change, and outsiders for over two millennium. The very nature of those who chose to inhabit the lonely mountain valleys and are content to live as their ancestors have lived presents a problem that the core states of the World find completely alien. McCaffrey notes that it will take at least 25 years of involvement to bring Afghanistan to a sustainable level. The level of commitment will be tested many times, and truthfully, if we follow the pattern of history, Afghanistan and the mountainous tribal regions will remain unreachable until some other social cancer like AQ or it’s offshoots commit such an unspeakable horror that the World reacts too in a equally unspeakable response. That said, it is a mission that the collective world needs to see completed. General McCaffrey lays out his views, they may diverge from other’s but his bottom line is the same for all informed observers.